Will "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83.3% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX-1.5pt54%
• Anthropic+2.4pt46%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$7.1M

24h Vol

$282.6K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-2.5pt54.1%
• Anthropic37.8%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T30.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt20.6%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.0pt17.6%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-1.6pt51%
• Claude+2.0pt37.8%
• ChatGPT-1.3pt

KALSHI

Google market share this week

• Above 19.1%+1.0pt1.5%
• Above 17.3%-2.0pt1%
• Above 20.2%2%

KALSHI

Best AI this week

• Gemini99.5%
• Claude0.5%
• Grok0.5%

• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
• OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026