Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Democrats control Congress 49.7%+0.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
92
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 4, 23, 2:47 PMJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
