Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
0.4 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Democrats control Congress 63.9%-0.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Democrats control Congress 63.9%-0.4ptForecasters
98
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 4, 23, 2:47 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
