Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUnyielding Islamic Regime 34.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 26, 3:08 AM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury
Manifold MarketsU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by which date?
PolymarketIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the outcome that best describes Iran's political situation by end of 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by assessing the primary governing structure and power dynamics in Iran as of December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting from international news sources, government statements, and expert analysis.
- the named outcome: The clerical system remains in control with minimal structural change to governance or ideology, effectively no concessions to the coalition or protestors.
- Pre war status quo or even more radicalism.
- Deal with minor concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving small compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or inferior to the Obama Deal.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Manifold Markets prices Unyielding Islamic Regime at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): resolve?
- Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.
- How is Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria