Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast35-39 38%+1.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+23.7 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 26, 8:40 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketWill the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election?
Manifold MarketsWill the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
Manifold MarketsHow many list seats will the NZ National Party get after the election?
Manifold MarketsRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
- If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
- This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
