Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 4:49 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NATO dissolves before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if NATO ceases to exist as an organization by December 31, 2027.
- Dissolution requires the formal termination of the North Atlantic Treaty or the effective end of NATO as a functioning alliance through the withdrawal of all or substantially all member states.
- For resolution purposes, NATO dissolves if:
- The North Atlantic Treaty is formally terminated or denounced by member states
- NATO's institutional structures cease to operate and the alliance is formally disbanded
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for NATO dissolves by 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does NATO dissolves by 2028 resolve?
- NATO dissolves by 2028 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is NATO dissolves by 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria