Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:53 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingJan 6, 26, 4:49 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if NATO ceases to exist as an organization by December 31, 2027.
- Dissolution requires the formal termination of the North Atlantic Treaty or the effective end of NATO as a functioning alliance through the withdrawal of all or substantially all member states.
- For resolution purposes, NATO dissolves if:
- The North Atlantic Treaty is formally terminated or denounced by member states
- NATO's institutional structures cease to operate and the alliance is formally disbanded
