PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%-0.1pt
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$24.1
Liquidity
$20.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 2.2%
Spread
1.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
10
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 7, 25, 11:21 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
EU dissolves in ?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketOPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketNATO dissolves by 2028
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
- 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
- EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.0pt77%
- New People (NL)-2.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt2%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6M
- 24h Vol
- $983.9K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.7pt95%
- Yes+0.7pt5%
- Total Vol
- $42.2M
- 24h Vol
- $576.1K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt54.5%
- October 31-3.5pt30.9%
- September 30-2.0pt11.8%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt21%
- October 31-4.0pt11%
- September 30-1.1pt3%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Total Vol
- $66.6M
- 24h Vol
- $159.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for EU dissolves before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does EU dissolves before 2027? resolve?
- EU dissolves before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is EU dissolves before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.