PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 2%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$399
Liquidity
$26.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 2.4%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.1%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Dec 7, 25, 11:21 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes2%
Volume trend
$399Jul 223d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
- 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
- EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.