Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (92.8%)
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 8:19 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
VIX and oil just shot way up and Trump often leaks info about war plans to insiders.
- Is Trump about to enact a major escalation of the Iran war?
- Resolves according to my personal judgement.
- In order to avoid conflict of interest, I will not trade on this market.
