Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.6%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 1:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
95%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Over 99% of the internet across borders travels through undersea fiber optic cables.
- There are about 500 of these cables, and each year about 200 need to be repaired (mostly due to accidents).
- It is trivial for military to deliberately break these cables.
- There are in most cases redundancies, but if enough break there could be massive outages across the internet.
- An outage affecting a single country will be enough for this market to resolve to YES.
- An outage that reduces speeds significantly even though there is still connectivity will resolve to YES.
