Will a global internet outage affect at least 25% of internet users for 24 consecutive hours before 2030?
One-OffTech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingOct 9, 26, 4:21 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US prohibit Internet users from using https://chat.qwen.ai/ for at least a day before EOY2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a massive internet outage before 2028?
Manifold Marketsthis market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030 at 00:00 UTC, a single global internet disruption prevents at least 25% of the world's internet users from accessing the public internet for at least 24 consecutive hours.
- Resolution criteria
- - The disruption must affect at least 25% of the estimated global internet-user population simultaneously for 24 consecutive hours.
- - Outages may result from cyberattacks, infrastructure failures, power-grid failures, government actions, or other causes.
- - Localised outages, individual website failures, social media disruptions, and slow connections do not qualify unless the global threshold is met.
- - The disruption must be supported by credible evidence from organisations such as Cloudflare Radar, NetBlocks, Internet Society, or comparable independent network-monitoring sources.