Current community forecast
No 55%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Oct 21, 26, 1:54 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, 00:00 UTC, a massive global internet disruption occurs meeting at least one of the following verifiable conditions:
- Global Traffic Collapse: Independent internet observatories—such as Cloudflare Radar, IODA, or NetBlocks—record a sustained decline of ≥20% in aggregate global internet traffic lasting continuously for at least 2 consecutive hours.
- Infrastructure Correlated Failure: Simultaneous unplanned downtime lasting at least 2 consecutive hours across three or more major global cloud or edge infrastructure providers (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Cloudflare or other global providers of similar size), resulting in verified outages across at least 25 of the top 100 most-visited global websites according to Cloudflare Radar or Similarweb.
- Core Protocol/BGP/DNS Root Failure: Either:
- The withdrawal or unreachability of ≥15% of globally active BGP prefixes sustained for at least 2 consecutive hours, as measured by Route Views, RIPE RIS, or Cloudflare Radar; or