Current community forecast
No 83.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 25, 10:46 AM UTCAug 14, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Poland implement a new electoral system for the Sejm before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we have AGI before the US makes any major changes to Social Security?
Manifold MarketsWhat major changes will Runescape 3 have in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030
Manifold MarketsUK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
KalshiNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
[image](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/)
- Current polling in the UK has many parties above 10% and around the same size, which could make a general election with their current FPTP system unpredictable.
- Among potential winners are the Reform party.
- Meanwhile, the Labour Party, which currently has a large majority, are polling quite badly, and would likely lose government if trends continue.
- They have traditionally been opposed to electoral reform, but with the above facts there has been increasing calls for Keir Starmer to reform the electoral system.
- Resolves yes if, before the next general election, significant changes are made to the electoral system such as implementing AV or PR.