If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.6%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 24, 1:07 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate
- Militias like the Proud Boys count
- MAGA-aligned independent would count
- Needs to have had a significant (>=10%) chance of success, according to traders' opinions
- Aborted plan or random document doesn't count
- Plan needs to be executed, or disrupted by law enforcement