If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Geopolitics RegulationOne-OffAI1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 73.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Mar 30, 23, 2:17 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 3:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$78,464.44-0.73%

EthereumETH$2,485.47-0.03%

SolanaSOL$103.44-0.31%

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Rules

I'll resolve this entirely subjectively.

(I'll stay out of betting in this market though.)
Resolves NA if AI safety doesn't become politically divided.

Report a data issue with this market

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Geopolitics RegulationOne-OffAI1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 73.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Mar 30, 23, 2:17 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 3:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$78,464.44-0.73%

EthereumETH$2,485.47-0.03%

SolanaSOL$103.44-0.31%

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Manifold Markets

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Polymarket

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Manifold Markets

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Manifold Markets

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Futuur

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?

Kalshi

Rules

I'll resolve this entirely subjectively.

(I'll stay out of betting in this market though.)
Resolves NA if AI safety doesn't become politically divided.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
When does If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right? resolve?: If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2028.
How is If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'll resolve this entirely subjectively.

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Frequently asked questions

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If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

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Frequently asked questions

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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?