Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)?

Manifold Markets prices 10 v 10 at 30.4% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100) resolve?

Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing US extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+0.8pt100%
• October 31+1.3pt97%
• November 295%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol

$29.1M

24h Vol

$904.6K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+2.5pt63%
• December 31+5.2pt40%
• November 30+8.0pt28%

+22 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27100%
• October 2999%
• October 3098%

+39 more outcomes

Total Vol

$40.6M

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No+1.0pt82.2%
• Yes-1.0pt17.8%

Total Vol

$75.8M

24h Vol

$190.7K

KALSHI

US-Iran nuclear deal?

• Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt39.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+3.0pt30.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt

POLYMARKET

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?

• December 31+8.5pt40%
• November 30+2.0pt25%
• November 2+1.0pt6%

+7 more outcomes

• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on?
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by which date?