Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 26, 1:56 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will working for the Federal government be considered an EA cause area by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
