Current community forecast
No 92.4%
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22
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 24, 3:00 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Rules
Even though the brain takes in billions of bits per second in raw information through the ocular nerves, touch, etc, there is a serial embedding bottleneck that constrains the retained information to a much smaller amount.
- The conscious mind probably runs at about 3-4 tokens per second, some numbers to help justify this claim:
- - Various studies of memory retention find the brain has a serial embedding bottleneck of about 40-60 bits per second (source: Silicon Dreams: Information, Man, Machine, by Robert Lucky), which if we assume a roughly LLM sized token dictionary would be somewhere in the realm of 3-4 tokens a second
- - "A typical speaking rate for English is 4 syllables per second." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_tempo)
- - Humans have a reaction time ranging from around 1/4 to 1/3 of a second, or an implied action-token production rate of 3-4 per second
- This implies that a human trains on about 1.6 billion tokens during their lifetime:
