Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 23, 6:05 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?
Manifold MarketsAt the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals:
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How will the war in Ukraine end??
- Manifold Markets prices Freezing of Frontline without official negotions at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How will the war in Ukraine end? resolve?
- How will the war in Ukraine end? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is How will the war in Ukraine end? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.