Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 23, 6:05 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals: