Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.2%
Forecasters
100
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 22, 1:21 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsAfter the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsHow will the war in Ukraine end?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists.
- Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea.
- Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? resolve?
- Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists.