Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.5%
Forecasters
102
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
May 14, 22, 1:21 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 6:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists.
- Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea.
- Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.