Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91.7%
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27
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 5, 24, 1:34 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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"Russian top brass" is ultimately a subjective description, but it would include but not be limited to the following: Vladimir Putin, Valery Gerasimov, Sergei Shoigu, Alexander Lukashenko, Sergei Lavrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Ramzan Kadyrov.
- "Any more" in this case refers to Yevgeny Prigozhin.
- Any future figures rising to his level of prominence would be included.
- Figures falling out of prominence before their death, such as Surovikin, are not included.
- The war ends when I consider it so.
- In general I would not consider a ceasefire akin to Minsk I or II as an end to the war.
