Gavin Newsom gets at least 45% of the popular vote in 2028 Presidential Election
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 7:54 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
JD Vance gets at least 45% of the popular vote in 2028 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if Gavin Newsom receives ≥45% of the national popular vote in the 2028 U.S. presidential general election, as reported by the official certified results.
- Resolves NO if he does not receive ≥45%, or if he is not a candidate in the general election.
