Current community forecast
Is not nominee, doesn't win 84%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
89
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 18, 25, 12:25 PM UTCNov 5, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurRules
Seeking to more clearly establish Newsom's conditional odds of winning the 2028 presidential election, rather than having to aggregate multiple markets.
- By "nominee" I mean for the Democratic Party, at the time of the election.
- (So for example if he's the democratic nominee but then he dies or drops out before election day, that's "not the nominee".
- Or if he's the nominee for any other party, that's also "not the nominee".)
- I will bet in this market
- Update 2025-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Wins criterion: I will defer to and match the resolution of @Tetraspace's market (@/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20) on who is elected president, including in disputed/contested scenarios.
