Current community forecast
Is not nominee, doesn't win 81.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
89
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 18, 25, 12:25 PM UTCNov 5, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Seeking to more clearly establish Newsom's conditional odds of winning the 2028 presidential election, rather than having to aggregate multiple markets.
- By "nominee" I mean for the Democratic Party, at the time of the election.
- (So for example if he's the democratic nominee but then he dies or drops out before election day, that's "not the nominee".
- Or if he's the nominee for any other party, that's also "not the nominee".)
- I will bet in this market
- Update 2025-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Wins criterion: I will defer to and match the resolution of @Tetraspace's market (@/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20) on who is elected president, including in disputed/contested scenarios.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win??
- Manifold Markets prices Is not nominee, doesn't win at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win? is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2028.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Seeking to more clearly establish Newsom's conditional odds of winning the 2028 presidential election, rather than having to aggregate multiple markets.