Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 56.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleDec 5, 24, 3:27 PM UTCNov 9, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
The MSM means any one of the mainstream, non-conservative American news outlets, NYTimes, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, etc. Outlets considered right-leaning like Fox News, WSJ, or the NYPost do not count.
- The MSM will have to report on the accusation in a supportive or neutral manner; if they report that online trolls are falsely accusing him of something, it does not count.
- "Sexual Impropriety" means anything the MSM considers sexually improper, regardless of whether it is illegal or not.
- If Newsom tells a "sexist joke" and the MSM deems that "sexual harassment," that would count.
- On the other hand, if the MSM says it was a harmless joke and not sexual harassment, it would not count.
- The standard here is what the MSM says, not law or objective ethics.
