Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.5%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 23, 10:02 AM UTCNov 9, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Updated description:
- My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.
- I propose that this resolve Yes if either:
- He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it
- He files an FEC Form 2
- Any objections or proposed other criteria?
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election? is scheduled to resolve on November 9, 2028.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Updated description: