Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.7%
Forecasters
68
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 22, 23, 10:02 AM UTCNov 9, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Updated description:
- My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.
- I propose that this resolve Yes if either:
- He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it
- He files an FEC Form 2
- Any objections or proposed other criteria?
