Current community forecast
No 77%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 7:56 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Gavin Newsom gets at least 45% of the popular vote in 2028 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the popular vote in the 2028 Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will New Hampshire vote for in the 2028 presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if JD Vance receives ≥45% of the national popular vote in the 2028 U.S. presidential general election, as reported by the official certified results.
- Resolves NO if he does not receive ≥45%, or if he is not a candidate in the general election.
