Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 2:06 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, an official decree, legislative resolution, or regulatory decision is enacted by an authorized Ukrainian government body—specifically the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), the President of Ukraine, or the Central Election Commission (CEC)—that officially schedules and sets a specific calendar date (or dates) for a nationwide presidential or parliamentary election.
- The scheduled date of the voting itself may occur in 2027 or later, provided that the formal legal act of calling/scheduling the election and assigning it a calendar date is completed and announced before January 1, 2027.
- Notes and Edge Cases:
- Postponements: If an election is officially scheduled before the deadline but is subsequently postponed, rescheduled, or canceled after December 31, 2026, this market still resolves to YES (as the act of calling the election occurred within the timeframe).
- Conditional/Vague Statements: General statements of intent, political promises, or tentative timelines (e.g., "elections will occur 90 days after a ceasefire") do not suffice to resolve YES unless a specific calendar date is officially decreed or legislated by the government.
