Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 8:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- Ukrainian law bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections under martial law.
- This market resolves YES if Ukraine holds any national elections (presidential or parliamentary) at any point during 2026.
- It resolves NO if no national elections are held during 2026.
- Martial law has been extended in 90-day intervals since the full-scale invasion with parliament's approval, and has most recently (as of November 2025) been extended for the 17th time until 3 February 2026.
- All political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document in which they agreed to postpone holding any national election until after the end of martial law and agreed to work on a special law that would regulate the first post-war election, which would take place no earlier than six months after the cancellation of martial law.
