If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 7:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastVolodymyr Zelenskyy 30.8%-1.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleMar 6, 25, 8:49 PMJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Volodymyr Zelenskyy31%
Volume trend
$3Jul 182d of dataJul 19
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Update 2026-07-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves N/A if the war ends without an election being held
- To determine when the war has ended, the creator will wait for Wikipedia editors to rename the Russia-Ukraine War (2022-present) page, backdating the end to whenever Wikipedia says it ended