Will Ukraine hold a national referendum on conceding territory in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 91%
No 91%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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$1.5K
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether Ukraine will hold a nationally organized referendum at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive) that explicitly asks voters to approve or reject the concession of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements and results published by Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC).
- If the CEC confirms that such a national referendum has taken place during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Local or regional referendums, unofficial votes, or plebiscites related only to ceasefire terms or administrative reform without ceding sovereignty will not count.
- If CEC information is unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.
