Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.9%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 12:36 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
- Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify.
- The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
- Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 resolve?
- China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria