Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 74.4%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 26, 3:05 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):
- 1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.
- Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).
- Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.
- A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.