Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 74.4%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 9, 26, 3:05 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?
Manifold MarketsChina will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?
PolymarketUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketWorld Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):
- 1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.
- Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).
- Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.
- A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028? resolve?
- Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria