As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.
GeopoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 84.9%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 28, 23, 1:16 PM UTCNov 1, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will resolve YES if any US state declares independence or secession from the United States, even if it is unsuccessful due to military action or otherwise.
- Will resolve NO if all current states are still part of the union on market close.
- This includes scenarios where states merge.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union. resolve?
- As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union. is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2028.
- How is As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve YES if any US state declares independence or secession from the United States, even if it is unsuccessful due to military action or otherwise.