SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
AIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.7%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 9:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes94.7%
No5.299999999999997%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
