Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.1%
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 24, 7:34 PM UTCJan 7, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt".
- I won't bet.
- (The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion.
- Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.