Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
US PoliticsOne-Off2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 69%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 24, 7:04 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? resolve?
- Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2029.
- How is Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.