In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
PoliticsManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastA streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality 75.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 27, 26, 12:39 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?
- At some point in the year 2050, I will identify a member of each listed class and ask them whether they think any assassination attempt targeting Donald Trump during his presidency was an operation planned by Trump and/or his close allies.
- I will target people who I think have a low chance of being aware of this market.
- I will try to get them to land on a percentage chance.
- I will then resolve the answers to those percentages.
- If the subject is overall noncooperative, I will likely just choose another member of the class.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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- J.D. Vance50%
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]?
- Manifold Markets prices A streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %] resolve?
- In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?