Was the Trump Assassination attempt staged?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Was the Trump Assassination attempt staged??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95.5% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Was the Trump Assassination attempt staged? resolve?

Was the Trump Assassination attempt staged? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.

How is Was the Trump Assassination attempt staged? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if evidence is released before Dec 31 2028 that shows the attempt on Trump on Jul 13 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania was staged.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+1.6pt95%
• 25 bps increase-1.9pt5%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$94.8M

24h Vol

$17.4M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt62.5%
• D-House, R-Senate28.5%
• Republicans sweep-0.6pt

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party+0.3pt91%
• Republican Party-0.7pt8.9%

Total Vol

$76.5M

24h Vol

$2.6M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico65.5%
• Ken Paxton+1.0pt34.5%

Total Vol

$46.3M

24h Vol

$1.9M

KALSHI

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

• Karen Bass+10.0pt54.5%
• Nithya Raman-10.0pt45.5%

Total Vol

$44.6M

24h Vol

$1.7M

POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep+2.0pt65%
• R Senate, D-1.0pt26.2%
• Republicans Sweep7.8%

+2 more outcomes

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• Florida Governor winner?
• Texas Governor winner?
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