Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 3:04 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an assassination attempt on David Baszucki before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsAssassination attempt on anyone who has had their security detail pulled by Trump by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?
KalshiWhat will JD Vance say during his Fox News town hall?
KalshiRules
Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is not yet resolving this market following an incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- The creator believes Trump was more likely the intended target rather than Vance, and will wait for investigation results before resolving YES or NO.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based on the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner incident.
- The attacker's manifesto targeted "Administration officials" by rank, with Trump as the primary target — Vance was not specifically or individually targeted.
- The creator is applying a narrow interpretation: a general threat against a group does not trigger a person-specific assassination attempt market.
