Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?
One-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.6%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 25, 9:22 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 1:10 AM UTC
Trends
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As confirmed by Wikipedia.
- The last one as of question writing was Melissa Hortman.
- On or before 2026-11-02, local time.
- Previously: @/mattyb/will-there-be-an-assassination-of-a-f2msv73wj7
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms? resolve?
- Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2026.
- How is Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As confirmed by Wikipedia.