Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
US PoliticsOne-OffChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.5%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 25, 1:05 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Calling Taiwan a “renegade province” or “rebellious” or saying they are responsible for the ongoing conflict or any escalation thereof for any reason counts.
- Saying he wants to make a deal whereby Taiwan and China will be united into a Big Beautiful country would count as it is the pro-China stance on the conflict under any reasonable understanding.
- Merely threatening or promising not to defend Taiwan, e.g. because of their relatively low commitment to defense spending or lack of trade concessions would not count.
- I will apply a “same breath” rule to retractions, anything contradicted in the same tweet or interview answer doesn’t count, but after that walkbacks and retractions don’t matter.
- For a speech any retraction in the same speech counts, but not after taking questions.
