Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection12moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSeptember 15, 2027 86.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+36.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 7:37 PM UTCSep 16, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- And 13% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed.
- If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes.
- If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
- Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Manifold Markets prices September 15, 2027 at 86% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: resolve?
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2027.
- How is Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028