Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jul 25, 26, 4:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolves Yes, if Gavin Newsom is the most likely candidate per the odds in the market below on Dec. 31 2026.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jul 25, 26, 4:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Hasan Piker Interview Gavin Newsom in 2026?

Manifold Markets

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

Kalshi

Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?

Polymarket

Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Will Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?

Manifold Markets

Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Resolves Yes, if Gavin Newsom is the most likely candidate per the odds in the market below on Dec. 31 2026.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
[link preview]

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]?: Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data] resolve?: Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data] settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes, if Gavin Newsom is the most likely candidate per the odds in the market below on Dec. 31 2026.

Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

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