Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.1%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 25, 1:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
While 10% of the vote would not win the seat, by taking votes from other candidates, 10% may be enough to change the outcome of an election and influence the final composition of the House of Representatives and even which party has a house majority.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official candidate nominated by the America Party receives at least 10% of the total votes in any U.S. Congressional seat (House or Senate) during the 2026 elections.
- Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for verification.
- For this item to resolve yes, the candidate must be a nominee or member of the America Party, and CANNOT be an official nominee of the Democrat or Republican Party.
- Refers to the federal U.S. Congress only, not state legislatures.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026? resolve?
- Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: While 10% of the vote would not win the seat, by taking votes from other candidates, 10% may be enough to change the outcome of an election and influence the final composition of the House of Representatives and even which party has a house majority.