Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 6, 25, 3:51 AM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiWill the America party run a candidate in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if a candidate from the America Party wins any election in the 2026 U.S. midterms at the federal, state, or local level.
- A "NO" resolution occurs if no America Party candidate secures such a position.
- If Elon Musk's political party operates under a different name but meets the same criteria, the market will still resolve to "YES." However, if Musk assumes control of an existing party, such as the Reform or Forward Party, without establishing a new party, this will not count towards a "YES" resolution.
