Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
PoliticsOne-OffWeatherUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.2%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 9, 25, 9:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any newly elected representatives be denied a seat in congress?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a third party candidate officially affiliated with the America Party is officially declared the winner of a seat in the U.S. Congress (either the House of Representatives or the Senate; federal US Congress only) in the 2026 elections.
- Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for resolution.
- If no America Party candidate wins a congressional seat in 2026, the market will resolve to "No."
- The candidate should not be a nominee for the Republican or Democratic Party, so if a candidate informally identifies as "America Party" but is a Republican or Democratic Party nominee, their win will not be sufficient to resolve this market "Yes".
- The America Party, founded by Elon Musk, aims to influence U.S. politics by focusing on key swing states and competitive congressional districts.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 resolve?
- Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria