Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecasthas had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk 99%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
52
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jul 8, 25, 4:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiAmerica party candidate wins any election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets in October 2026?
PolymarketRules
I do not bet on my own markets.
- Resolves according to official or primary documents where possible.
- If official documents are not applicable, resolves according to media reporting.
- Note: this is by that date, options will resolve sooner when they are verified to have happened.
- AI garbage to disregard below this line:
- Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): January 7th, 2025 has been tentatively set as a possible end date for tracking mentions of the "America Party" by Elon Musk (based on 6 months after his last known mention on July 7th, 2024), unless he mentions it again or a later mention is found.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026? resolve?
- What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I do not bet on my own markets.