Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:47 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecasthas had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
53
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.4 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 25, 4:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiAmerica party candidate wins any election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the America Party be more successful than the Forward Party by the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
KalshiRules
I do not bet on my own markets.
- Resolves according to official or primary documents where possible.
- If official documents are not applicable, resolves according to media reporting.
- Note: this is by that date, options will resolve sooner when they are verified to have happened.
- AI garbage to disregard below this line:
- Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): January 7th, 2025 has been tentatively set as a possible end date for tracking mentions of the "America Party" by Elon Musk (based on 6 months after his last known mention on July 7th, 2024), unless he mentions it again or a later mention is found.
