Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastSummer Lee 30.3%+13.7ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 3:24 AMMay 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
John Fetterman8%
Compare venues· Summer Lee
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · auto | Low | 34% | — | $0 | $6.8K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 30% | — | — | — | 10 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
3y
34%
34%
26%
+5 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.1K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
Resolves yes to whoever wins the 2028 Democratic senate nominee in Pennsylvania?
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$403Jul 172d of dataJul 18
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Resolves yes to whoever wins the 2028 Democratic senate nominee in Pennsylvania?