Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
22.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 66.1%+44.0ptLeader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11.2K
Liquidity
$19.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
35.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 12:00 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
- Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Russian sanctions bill become law??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 66% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will a Russian sanctions bill become law? resolve?
- Will a Russian sanctions bill become law? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will a Russian sanctions bill become law? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.