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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 16%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$15.4

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

13.0% / 16.0%

Spread

23.1%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Dec 26, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes16%

Rules

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.

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Rules

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.