Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

1.0% (24h)One-OffPolitics Geopolitics Russia / Ukraine5mo

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

Before Jan 1, 2027 51%+1.0%

Leader of 3 outcomes

Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$72.3

Liquidity

$2.9K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

46.0% / 51.0%

Spread

10.9%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 16 minutes ago

Dec 26, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before Sep 1, 2026

Before Nov 1, 2026

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Before Jan 1, 202751%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume trend

$72

Jul 221d of dataJul 26

Related Markets

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

$139.5K

United Russia (ER): 56%

POLYMARKET

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

$15.8K

Yulia Navalnaya: 11%

POLYMARKET

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

$970.9

Yes: 74%

POLYMARKET

Russia/Ukraine ceasefire before August?

$300

Yes: 3.4%

MYRIAD

First overseas visit of the next UK PM?

$245.5

USA 🇺🇸: 5.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Russia/Ukraine ceasefire before August?

$208.4

Yes: 4.7%

MYRIAD

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$64,503.96+0.70%

EthereumETH$1,885.56+1.51%

SolanaSOL$74.93+1.39%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.50%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.95%

BNBBNB$570.41+0.87%

Related News

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Russia is legalizing crypto for everyone except RussiansCrypto News

Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News

Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News

Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News

Rules

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.