KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republicans, 26+ pts 88%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.7 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 1:03 AM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-8.0pt69.3%
- Yes+8.0pt30.7%
- Total Vol
- $16.3M
- 24h Vol
- $960.3K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217M
- 24h Vol
- $572.4K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Bibi / Netanyahu+83.0pt99%
- Ukraine+44.0pt99%
- Kamala99%
+31 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $998.7K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+17.0pt61%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+16.0pt60%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+15.0pt48%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt13%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.2pt35.7%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt27.6%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.2%
+38 more outcomes
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Texas Senate winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for West Virginia Senate margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 26+ pts at 88% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does West Virginia Senate margin of victory resolve?
- West Virginia Senate margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is West Virginia Senate margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.