KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republicans, 21+ pts 99%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:26 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 36th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.1pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt13%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.5M
- 24h Vol
- $841.9K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $216.9M
- 24h Vol
- $777.7K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No78.2%
- Yes21.8%
- Total Vol
- $15.8M
- 24h Vol
- $566.9K
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt13%
- December-1.0pt6%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt18%
- Jon Ossoff-0.3pt16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt13%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)80%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt16%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
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- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Next French Presidential Election
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- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas's 36th District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 21+ pts at 99% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Texas's 36th District margin of victory resolve?
- Texas's 36th District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Texas's 36th District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 36th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.