KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republicans, 3+ pts 79%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$574
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:22 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 4th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Florida's 4th District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 3+ pts at 79% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Florida's 4th District margin of victory resolve?
- Florida's 4th District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Florida's 4th District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 4th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.